The Battlegrounds: African-American turnout
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Turnout among African-Americans could determine result of presidential election
- Unemployment, voter ID laws, complacency could affect turnout
- Obama campaign has unprecedented effort to register, communicate with voters
- One Philadephian says there is more at stake this year than in 2012
Editor's note: The 2012
presidential race is CNN Chief National Correspondent John King's
seventh campaign. King is traveling through battleground states, where
the election will be decided, to find the voters who will determine
whether President Barack Obama gets a second term or if the country
needs the change in direction that Mitt Romney represents.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (CNN) -- Paulette Beale shakes her head at the suggestion, then flashes a contagious smile.
"It's still history," she
says, to rebut the notion there could be less intensity for President
Barack Obama in the African-American community the second time around.
"The first history was
that he won. The second history's that he won twice. So, it's not just
about history the first time, you have to be concerned about the history
for the next four years also. You can make history more than one time,
you know."
Her mother and father stand a few feet away, nodding approvingly.
Paul and Altermese Beale
founded Paul Beale's Florist 41 years ago. Paulette takes the lead now,
but her parents are on hand helping most days in a shop that is an
institution in the Ogontz Avenue area of North Philadelphia.
"We love him," Altermese Beale says of Obama. "One of the proudest days of my life was the day he was elected."
The Beales are determined
to see the president re-elected, and are part of an Obama campaign
ground operation that is active early because of several obstacles to
generating the big African-American turnout that was critical to
then-Sen. Obama's 2008 victories in many of the major presidential
battlegrounds, Pennsylvania among them.
Obama vs. low black voter turnout
Fact-Checking campaign ads
Biden critical of Romney campaign
Our visit this week was timed to coincide with the president's speech to the National Urban League.
At that meeting, in New
Orleans, a major topic of discussion is a new Urban League study
suggesting that if African-American turnout in 2012 falls back to 2004
levels, then Obama is almost certain to lose North Carolina and would
find things much tougher in a handful of other battlegrounds, including
Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania.
In 2008, just shy of 65%
of eligible African-Americans voted for president; in 2004 it was 60%.
That prospect of lower turnout could change the math in some key
battlegrounds even if the president runs roughly equal to his share of
the African-American vote, an eye-popping 95% in 2008.
There are a number of
reasons the Obama campaign worries that turnout among its most loyal
voters could slip some -- and we got a taste of all of them during our
visit to Philadelphia:
• Economy: African-American unemployment is well above the national average.
• History: The prospect of electing the country's first African-American president was unquestionably a factor in the 2008 turnout boost.
• Complacency:
The president's win in Pennsylvania was by 9 points, and Republicans
have not carried the state in a presidential race since 1988.
• New voter ID laws: Pennsylvania is among the states with a new requirement that voters show photo identification on Election Day.
Paul Beale scowls at the mention of the law.
"There are people who don't want him as president and they are trying to suppress the vote," he says.
Altermese Beale says some of her elderly friends don't have driver's licenses or other current photo identification.
"If they keep this law, we will be in bad shape," she says.
The Beales ask every
customer if they are registered to vote, and have forms and literature
on hand for those who need help. Across the street at the Obama campaign
field office -- one of six in Philadelphia -- a table just inside the
door is stacked with literature about the new law and its requirements.
The campaign's
networking with local businesses is part of an unprecedented effort to
register and then keep in contact with African-American voters.
Danny Wright is a
natural fit. A 67-year-old with vivid memories of taking part in civil
rights marches in his native Maryland and now the owner of Danny's Auto
Tags, which contracts with the state to issue driver's licenses and also
sells auto insurance.
"It's like a spark,"
Wright told us during our afternoon visit. "When you say, 'Obama,'
everybody is very, very enthusiastic about him and you will see each
person say to the other person, 'Have you registered to vote?' "
The new ID law is also a
hot topic of conversation. Many fiercely oppose it. Wright is in that
group, but says he has to assume it will stay on the books through
November.
"You hear a lot of talk
about suppression," he says. "Everyone is making sure they're having the
proper ID and everything to go vote. So we reinforce this also."
Our walk through the
neighborhood -- steamy temperature aside -- had more of an October feel
than late July; campaign volunteers were everywhere, asking passersby if
they are registered to vote and collaring most of those who answered
no.
One of the local Obama
turnout teams has met regularly since the 2008 campaign. Most of the
others took shape beginning a year ago. One older volunteer says his
only worry is that so many people tell him, "Don't worry, Pennsylvania
is a can't-lose.' "
Bruce Burton has a quick
answer when visitors to his Pretty Boyz barber shop sound complacent
about the president's November odds.
"We have more at stake,"
Burton said. "We're either going back to the years of President Bush or
we're going to keep moving forward. ... We have voter registration
forms in the back. We are recruiting as many people as possible. We are
not feeling that this is a sure bet. We feel we have to stand behind him
100%."
Black clergy is always
critical to voter turnout in communities like this, and Dr. Kevin R.
Johnson says Obama can count on his help despite a disagreement over the
president's support for same-sex marriage.
"We understand that he
is not the pastor of the United States of America -- he is the president
of the United States," said Johnson, the senior pastor at
Philadelphia's Bright Hope Baptist Church.
After services this past Sunday, Bright Hope congregants had a chance to get materials on the new voter ID law.
Johnson says that law
could be one factor in driving African-American turnout down a bit from
2008. But if there is a significant drop, his bet is that the tough
economy will be the driving force.
"The president could do
more in that area," Johnson said. "When you look at the unemployment
rate in the African-American community, there's more that can be done."
Still, Johnson says
things are a bit improved in recent months, and as he tells congregants
they must vote, he also says he is banking on a little help in this
tougher election climate.
"The reason I know that
everything is going to be all right in November is because I trust in
the Lord," Johnson said. "I love the president. But I trust in the
Lord."
